BY JULIET EKWENUGO
Yola
A public opinion survey conducted ahead of the All Progressives Congress (APC) senatorial primaries in Adamawa Central has projected Aliyu Abdulhameed Abbati as the leading aspirant among contenders seeking the party’s ticket for the 2027 general election.
The survey, carried out by Greenfield Analytics Consortium, showed that Abbati recorded the highest favourability and acceptability ratings among party stakeholders and respondents sampled across the senatorial district.
According to the report released after an eight-week field assessment, the study covered the seven local government areas of Adamawa Central Senatorial District, including Hong, Gombi, Song, Yola South, Yola North, Fufore and Girei.
The exercise, coordinated by data analyst Dr. Suleiman Bashir, sampled 6,500 respondents using a combination of stratified, cluster and simple random sampling techniques aimed at ensuring broad representation and reducing statistical bias.
The consortium stated that the sampling structure reflected demographic and political variations across age, gender, educational background, occupation, religion and urban-rural distribution.
Respondents were asked to assess aspirants based on indicators considered critical to electoral viability within the APC, including legislative competence, grassroots connection, public trust, accessibility, party loyalty, leadership experience, empowerment capacity and overall electability.
To validate the findings, the research team said inferential statistical models, including Chi-square (χ²) testing with a five per cent margin of error, were applied to determine the consistency of voter preferences across demographic categories.
The report noted that the variations observed in candidate support were statistically significant and reflected clear voting patterns within the APC support base in the zone.
At the conclusion of the survey, Abbati emerged with 34 per cent of the total weighted responses to lead the field of aspirants.
Hapsat Ibrahim Modibbo followed with 20 per cent, while Engr. Dr. Aishatu Aliyu Umar secured 15 per cent.
Umar B. Bindir polled 12 per cent, Saidu Hayatu Galadima recorded 10 per cent, while Sen. Abdulaziz Murtala Nyako garnered nine per cent of the responses.
According to the analysis, Abbati’s lead was largely driven by his perceived accessibility, growing grassroots network and strong acceptance among younger respondents and party mobilisers across the senatorial district.
The report further observed that while other aspirants demonstrated strength in certain local government areas and demographic blocs, Abbati maintained relatively consistent performance across all sampled LGAs, an outcome researchers described as evidence of “broad-based political acceptability.”
Cross-tabulation of responses also indicated that respondents who prioritised grassroots mobilisation, party unity and constituency engagement were more inclined towards Abbati’s candidacy.
In contrast, some of the other contenders performed better among respondents who placed emphasis on technocratic experience and political legacy.
Observers who reviewed the findings described the Adamawa Central APC contest as highly competitive, noting that several influential figures still retain significant support bases within the party structure.
They, however, maintained that Abbati’s lead in the survey reflects growing momentum that could shape the dynamics of the APC primaries if sustained in the coming months.
Speaking on the methodology adopted for the exercise, research consultant Dr. Ibrahim Yusuf described the survey as “a technically structured study rooted in standard opinion polling frameworks.”
He said the deployment of layered sampling techniques, demographic balancing and statistical validation tools enhanced the credibility and analytical depth of the findings.
Yusuf added that as political activities ahead of the 2027 elections gather momentum, data-driven assessments and opinion trend analyses would continue to shape campaign strategies, stakeholder alignments and internal party calculations across Adamawa State.
